Fan Scouting Report Results

The results of the fan scouting reports are posted here. We think T.J. McConnell is the best player on the team and that Saunders and Clark were second and third. Most of the results make good sense. I think we did a pretty good job.

So, Why is Duquesne Losing? (Wonkish)

I have long complained about Duquesne’s offense. My primary reservation has been that there is not enough movement and it thus becomes difficult to create open shots. One way of measuring how proficient a defense is in this regard field goal percentage. Teams that don’t give up open shots will likely have less of allowed shots go through the net. The best field goal percentage metric is effective field goal percentage or eFG%. It weighs three point field goals more for the obvious reason that they are worth more points. It follows this equation.

eFG% = FGM /(2PFGA + 0.5 * 3PFGA)

My hypothesis is that Duquesne performs more poorly against teams that are good at contesting shots as measured by effective field goal percentage. Performance is measured by wins and losses. Thus, wins are compared to losses. The independent variable is eFG% and the dependent variables are wins and losses. I gathered all of the Dukes’ opponents eFG% and the result of the game for Duquesne (win or loss).

Below are two tables. The first lists all of Duquesne’s opponents with their respective effective field goal percentages in ascending order.  Average eFG% this season is 49.1%. The second table is a cross tab which shows the data broken down by above and below average eFG% and if the Dukes won or lost.

Team W/L eFG%
Temple W 44.8
Richmond ? 45.5
George Mason L 45.5
Pittsburgh L 45.5
West Virginia L 45.7
Massachusetts W 46
Xavier L 46.1
Dayton W 46.5
Dayton L 46.5
Rhode Island L 47.7
St. Louis W 47.9
St. Bonaventure ? 47.9
St. Louis L 47.9
St. Bonaventure L 47.9
Robert Morris L 48.1
Charlotte W 48.6
Fordham W 49.7
George Washington W 49.8
Saint Joseph’s W 49.9
Northwestern State W 50
Norfolk State W 50.3
Penn State L 50.9
La Salle W 51.4
Bowling Green W 51.4
Wisconsin Green Bay W 52.1
Houston Baptist W 52.3
IUPUI W 53.8
MD Baltimore County W 54.7
Result Above Avg eFG% Below Avg eFG% Total
Loss 9 (64.3%) 1 (8.3%) 10 (38.5%)
Win 5 (35.7%) 11 (91.7%) 16 (61.5%)
Total 14 (100%) 12 (100%) 26 (100%)
Phi: .573 Sig.: .003

Duquesne has won 11 out of 12 contests against below average eFG% teams compared to losing 9 of 14 games against above average field goal defense teams. The phi value, a measure of correlation between the relationship, is relatively high at .573 (highest possible is 1.00). It is especially notable because statistical relationships in sports rarely are that high. Further, showing that the relationship is significant is the the p value (sig.) which is less than .01, a standard measure of significance. The major conclusion to take from this is that Duquesne struggles against good field goal defense teams. It also has played more of these clubs recently which could explain the recent downturn. While there are serious psychological factors at play as discussed in Dave Mackall’s piece, that does not explain everything. This analysis illuminates that Duquesne has trouble with the types of teams it has been playing recently and further, its remaining two games are against above average field goal defensive teams which spells trouble.